ANZAC Day demand planning for restaurants

ANZAC Day (25 April) is a public holiday across Australia—and a genuine demand spike for hospitality venues. Unlike Christmas or Melbourne Cup, it sneaks up on many owners. The trick? Forecast covers early, lock in supply chains by mid-April, and staff strategically around penalty rates. Get it right, and you'll run a tight, profitable service. Get it wrong, and you'll either overstock perishables or turn hungry customers away.

Why ANZAC Day demand matters differently than other public holidays

ANZAC Day sits in a sweet spot: it's a public holiday (so penalty rates apply), but it's not a summer holiday rush. Most venues see a 20–40% lift in covers compared to a regular Thursday or Friday, depending on location and venue type. Pubs and RSL clubs typically spike harder; fine-dining restaurants often see a quieter day. Cafes and breakfast spots, though, can be slammed—locals out for a long weekend breakfast before dawn services or post-service gatherings.

The challenge isn't just volume—it's unpredictability. Unlike Christmas (12 weeks out) or Mother's Day (locked into the calendar), ANZAC Day often gets forgotten in March planning cycles. You're competing for supplier stock, casual staff, and mental bandwidth with autumn trading and winter menu planning.

How to forecast ANZAC Day covers accurately

Start with last year's data—but adjust for context

Pull your POS or reservation system for 25 April last year. How many covers did you do? What was the average spend per head? What time slots were busiest?

Then adjust:

• New menu items? If you've added a signature ANZAC biscuit or Anzac-themed cocktail, expect 10–15% higher spend per head.
• Seating changes? Outdoor expansion or table restructuring shifts capacity.
• Local events? Check your council's events calendar. Some councils run dawn services with community breakfasts nearby. Others don't. This moves the needle.
• Day of week. ANZAC Day 2024 falls on a Tuesday; in 2025, it's a Wednesday. Mid-week services often attract older demographics and locals, not tourists.

Use a simple three-scenario model

Don't just guess one number. Build three:

1. Conservative: Last year's covers × 1.1 (10% growth, or flat if you're in a slower area).
2. Realistic: Last year's covers × 1.25 (typical growth for venues with good local awareness).
3. Optimistic: Last year's covers × 1.4 (growth if you're running promo, in a high-foot-traffic area, or near major ANZAC events).

Plan your supply chain and staffing around the realistic scenario. Use conservative to set your walk-in buffer. Use optimistic to identify your ceiling—when you'll need to politely turn tables away or extend service hours.

Supplier ordering: the April 15 rule

ANZAC Day falls mid-week, which compresses your ordering window. Most suppliers (Bidvest, PFD, Countrywide) process orders 2–3 days before delivery. By late April, demand is high and stock is tight.

Lock in orders by 15 April at the latest. This gives you:

• Priority allocation from major suppliers.
• Time to source secondaries (independent producers, local growers) if your first choice is out.
• A buffer for quality checks before service.

Specific items to over-order slightly

• Bread & bakery: Cafes and brunch venues see 30–50% higher bread demand. Order 20% above your realistic forecast.
• Eggs & dairy: Breakfast-heavy menus spike. Confirm your supplier's ANZAC stock by 12 April.
• Meat (if roasts/cold cuts feature): Many venues run ANZAC-themed specials. Lock in your butcher or Bidvest allocation early.
• Spirits & beer: RSL clubs and pubs move serious volume. Order by 10 April to avoid allocation caps.
• Perishables with short shelf life: Salad greens, soft herbs, seafood. Order closer to the day (22–23 April) to minimise waste, but confirm availability with your supplier by 15 April.

Staffing strategy: navigate penalty rates without overspending

Public holiday penalty rates in Australia vary by state and award, but expect 150–200% of base wage for most hospitality roles on ANZAC Day. This is non-negotiable and applies whether the venue is quiet or rammed.

The counter-intuitive tactic: stagger your service hours

Most venues open at their normal time and close at their normal time on public holidays. Instead, consider a compressed, high-intensity service window.

Example: Instead of opening 7 a.m.–10 p.m. (15 hours, full penalty rates), open 8 a.m.–2 p.m. and 5 p.m.–9 p.m. (8 hours, full penalty rates). You'll capture the post-ANZAC service breakfast rush and the evening social crowd, while avoiding the dead mid-afternoon slot. Your penalty-rate bill drops 45%, and you free staff for other duties (prep, cleaning, admin) at standard rates.

This works especially well for cafes, brunch venues, and pubs. Fine-dining and casual restaurants with set dinner seatings should ignore this—it'll confuse customers.

Right-size your team

Use your three-scenario forecast to build a staffing plan:

• Conservative scenario: Your usual Thursday/Friday team, no extras.
• Realistic scenario: Add 1–2 front-of-house staff (to manage covers and table turns) and 0–1 kitchen support (depending on menu complexity).
• Optimistic scenario: Add 2–3 front-of-house, 1–2 kitchen, 1 barista or bar support.

Confirm staffing commitments by 18 April. Late confirmations on public holidays are a nightmare—and you'll pay more if you scramble for casuals.

Inventory management: avoid the double-whammy

ANZAC Day often falls during a quiet period for certain categories (e.g., winter produce, slow café traffic mid-week in non-touristy areas). This creates a trap: you over-order based on forecast, then face wastage if demand underperforms.

Use a 48-hour checkpoint

By 23 April, you'll have a clearer picture of walk-in bookings, weather, and local event attendance. If your realistic forecast is looking pessimistic, pivot:

• Shift perishable specials to post-ANZAC days (26–27 April) via staff meal discounts or limited menu extensions.
• Reduce final prep quantities for low-confidence items (e.g., don't prep 200 portions of a new dessert if bookings suggest 120 covers).
• Confirm final staff headcount; if bookings are down, you can release casuals with notice (check your agreements).

Pricing and menu strategy

ANZAC Day is a public holiday—you're paying penalty rates, and customers expect to pay a bit more. It's not gouging; it's honest.

• Option 1: Add a 10–15% surcharge to your menu (clearly stated) or adjust your base prices for the day. Most venues in major cities do this.
• Option 2: Keep prices flat but reduce portion sizes slightly or simplify the menu. This lowers input costs and labour complexity.
• Option 3: Run a fixed-price set menu (e.g., "ANZAC Day three-course, $65pp"). This makes forecasting easier and speeds service.

Test your approach against competitor venues in your area. If a nearby cafe is running a special ANZAC breakfast at $28, and you're at $35, you need a compelling reason (better coffee, unique dish, view, service).

Where Calso fits in

Demand forecasting and supplier ordering are the two biggest planning headaches around ANZAC Day. Calso's demand prediction engine learns from your historical POS data and flags anomalies—helping you avoid over-ordering or understocking. Its supplier ordering integration connects to Bidvest, PFD, and other major Australian suppliers, so you can lock in orders and track allocations without juggling spreadsheets. As the day approaches, Calso's real-time booking and walk-in data gives you that 48-hour checkpoint to adjust staffing and prep quantities on the fly.

Want early access?

If you're managing ANZAC Day planning and sick of the admin overhead, Calso's founding-venue program gives you priority onboarding and direct access to the team during your first peak trading periods. Limited spots available in each city. Join the waitlist at calso.com.au/join—before your competitor does.