ANZAC Day Demand: How to Stock Right

ANZAC Day falls on April 25 every year—a public holiday across Australia that draws crowds to pubs, RSL clubs, cafes, and restaurants. Yet most hospitality owners still guess their covers, chase suppliers mid-week, and end up either overstocked or scrambling. The truth: ANZAC Day demand is predictable. You just need the right framework.

Why ANZAC Day demand planning matters for your venue

ANZAC Day is one of Australia's most significant public holidays. Unlike Christmas or Melbourne Cup, it's tied to a fixed date and a specific cultural moment—dawn services, marches, and community gatherings that funnel traffic into hospitality venues throughout the day.

Here's what makes it tricky: demand patterns vary wildly by venue type and location. A beachside cafe in Cronulla will see very different foot traffic than a laneway bar in Melbourne's CBD. A country pub near an RSL club will be packed; a fine-diner in the city might be quieter. And penalty rates apply—you're paying staff 150% of ordinary rates on public holidays, which means your labour cost per cover climbs fast.

Get the demand forecast wrong, and you either:

• Overstock perishables (produce wilts, proteins spoil, margins evaporate)
• Understock core items (run out of beer, coffee, or bread mid-service and lose covers)
• Over-staff for demand that doesn't materialise (or under-staff and watch service collapse)

The fix: predict demand 2–3 weeks out, lock supplier orders early, and adjust staffing to match.

How to forecast ANZAC Day covers accurately

Look at your own data first

Your best teacher is your own venue. Pull last year's ANZAC Day sales data—covers, revenue, peak hours, bestsellers. Most POS systems (Square, Toast, Lightspeed) let you export this in minutes.

If you don't have last year's data, pull the closest comparable public holiday: Easter Monday, Queen's Birthday (June), or Anzac Day two years ago. Compare:

• Total covers
• Average spend per head
• Peak service times (breakfast vs. lunch vs. dinner)
• Top 10 menu items by volume
• Waste or leftover stock

This gives you a baseline. Then adjust for known differences: Is your venue busier on public holidays? Do you run special ANZAC-themed menus? Will you be open for breakfast service (many venues extend hours for dawn service crowds)?

Factor in your venue type and location

ANZAC Day demand splits by venue category:

Pubs and RSL clubs: Expect 30–50% higher covers than a regular Wednesday. Dawn service crowds arrive early; lunch service is packed; evening quieter.

Cafes and brunch spots: 20–40% lift, concentrated in breakfast and early lunch (7 am–1 pm). Marches and services finish by mid-morning, so traffic drops hard after lunch.

Fine dining and dinner venues: Often 10–20% lower covers than usual—families are out at marches or backyard BBQs, not booking a $150-per-head tasting menu.

Bakeries: 50%+ spike if you're near a march route or RSL club. Pre-orders and early morning foot traffic are huge.

Location matters too. A venue in a regional town near a major RSL will see very different demand than one in a CBD high-rise. Check the RSL NSW, RSL Victoria, and Clubs Australia websites for ANZAC march routes and timings in your area.

The counter-intuitive tactic: survey your regulars early

Most owners don't do this, but it works. In early April, ask your regular customers (via email, Instagram, or in-person) whether they'll be in on ANZAC Day, what time they're coming, and whether they're bringing guests.

You'll get 20–30% response rate, but that's gold. You learn:

• How many of your core customers plan to visit
• Whether they're bringing families (bigger spend, longer tables, different menu mix)
• Whether they're coming for lunch, dinner, or both
• Any group bookings or private functions you haven't logged yet

Use this intel to adjust your forecast up or down. A 10-person group booking you didn't know about can swing your entire staffing and stock plan.

Supplier ordering strategy for ANZAC Day

Order 10–14 days out, not 3 days out

Australian suppliers (Bidvest, PFD, Countrywide, and your local cash-and-carry) get slammed in the week before public holidays. If you order Wednesday before ANZAC Day, you risk:

• Out-of-stock items (especially premium proteins, craft beers, specialty produce)
• Late or partial deliveries
• Price spikes on last-minute orders

Instead, place your main order by April 11 at the latest. This gives suppliers time to pick and pack, and gives you a buffer if something arrives damaged or short.

Order by category, not by guess

Break your ANZAC Day order into buckets:

Proteins (40% of food cost): If you're forecasting 250 covers vs. your usual 180, order 39% more chicken, beef, and fish. Build in 5–10% waste buffer for trim and spoilage.

Produce (20% of food cost): Vegetables wilt fast. Order produce for 2–3 days only, not the whole week. Arrange a mid-week top-up delivery if your forecast is high.

Dry goods & pantry (20%): Flour, oil, spices, tinned goods. These don't spoil, so order generously. You'll use them next week anyway.

Beverages (15%): Beer, wine, spirits, soft drinks, coffee. This is where you'll see the biggest lift. Order 40–50% above normal. Beer and spirits move fast on public holidays; soft drinks and juice lag.

Dairy (5%): Milk, cheese, butter. Order for 2–3 days. Milk especially goes off fast.

Use your POS data to calculate the split. If beer is 8% of your usual revenue, and you're forecasting 40% higher revenue, order 40% more beer.

Watch for supplier minimums and lead times

Some suppliers (especially for specialty items—craft beers, imported cheeses, premium cuts) have minimum order quantities or longer lead times. Check these in early April:

• Does Bidvest or PFD have a minimum on your usual craft beer order?
• How many days' notice does your local bakery need for extra sourdough?
• Will your seafood supplier need 48 hours' notice for extra barramundi?

Call suppliers directly—don't just email. A 5-minute call to your Bidvest or PFD rep on April 8 can confirm availability and lock in delivery slots.

Staffing and labour cost planning

Public holiday penalty rates in Australia are 150% of ordinary rates (or 200% for some roles). This means your labour cost per cover jumps significantly on ANZAC Day.

If your usual labour cost is 28% of revenue, expect 35–40% on a public holiday (because you're paying staff more, and you're likely running a longer service).

How to manage it:

• Forecast covers accurately (see above). Don't over-staff for phantom demand.
• Extend service hours strategically. If you usually open at 11 am, open at 8 am for dawn service crowds—but only if your forecast supports it. An extra 3 hours of staffing for 20 covers isn't worth it.
• Cross-train staff. A bartender who can work front-of-house, or a kitchen hand who can plate desserts, gives you flexibility if demand spikes or someone calls in sick.
• Offer shift incentives, not just penalty rates. Some venues offer a small bonus (e.g., $20 extra per shift) to lock in staff early. It's cheaper than understaffing and losing covers.

Avoid the stockout trap: build a contingency buffer

Even with good forecasting, surprises happen. A larger-than-expected crowd, an early delivery that's short, a supplier who runs out of your item.

Build a 10% contingency buffer into your order for your top 5 bestsellers. If you forecast 250 covers and your #1 dish is steak frites (usually 12% of covers), order enough for 34 serves instead of 30. The extra 4 serves cost you ~$15 in ingredients. If you run out and lose 4 covers at $45 average spend, you lose $180 in revenue and disappoint customers.

The maths is clear: a small buffer is cheap insurance.

Where Calso fits in

Demand forecasting and supplier ordering are operational bottlenecks that eat up owner time. Calso's demand-planning module learns your venue's patterns—including public holiday lifts—and surfaces recommended order quantities by supplier and category. You can lock orders to Bidvest, PFD, or Countrywide directly from Calso, and it tracks deliveries and flags shortfalls. This means less spreadsheet time, fewer stockouts, and more confidence in your ANZAC Day plan.

Want early access?

If you're managing multiple venues or juggling demand forecasting across different locations, Calso's founding-venue program gives you priority onboarding and direct access to the team. Spots are limited by city. Join the waitlist at calso.com.au/join.

Quick ANZAC Day checklist

• Pull last year's ANZAC Day sales data (covers, revenue, top items, peak times)
• Survey regular customers in early April about their plans
• Calculate demand forecast by venue type and location
• Break forecast into supply categories (proteins, produce, beverages, etc.)
• Check supplier minimums and lead times by April 8
• Place main supplier order by April 11
• Confirm staffing and penalty rate budget
• Build 10% contingency buffer for top 5 bestsellers
• Plan service hours (breakfast, lunch, dinner) based on forecast
• Brief kitchen and front-of-house on expected covers and menu priorities