What Actually Changed in Hospitality Post-COVID
The short answer: staffing, supplier relationships, and customer expectations shifted permanently—but not how most owners expected. Three years on, the venues thriving in 2026 aren't the ones chasing pre-2020 nostalgia. They've rewired their operations around what stuck.
The staffing crisis never really ended
Remember when hospitality unemployment was 0% and every café owner was begging for bodies? That's not quite over.
The ABS reported hospitality unemployment at 3.8% in late 2025—higher than the national average. But here's what actually changed: the type of worker shifted. Casual rosters used to be 60-70% of most venues' payroll. Now, venues are running tighter permanent teams (often 40-50% permanent, 50-60% casual) to reduce turnover. You can't afford to train someone and lose them in six weeks.
What this means for you:
- Public holidays now cost more to staff. ANZAC Day, Melbourne Cup Day, Christmas—these used to be "find someone last-minute" situations. Now they're planned 8-10 weeks out, and penalty rates (up to 200% in some states) are non-negotiable. Budget accordingly.
- Retaining your best staff is cheaper than replacing them. A single barista turnover costs $3,000–$5,000 in recruiting and training. Venues that introduced annual bonuses or shift-swapping flexibility (even small perks) kept 30% more staff long-term.
- Remote onboarding and digital rosters became permanent. Venues using apps like Deputy or Toast for scheduling saw 15% fewer no-shows than paper-based rosters. This stuck because it works.
Supplier relationships got personal (and fragile)
When Bidvest, PFD, and Countrywide had supply-chain chaos in 2021–2022, many owners diversified suppliers for the first time. A lot of that stuck.
The venues winning now don't rely on one supplier. They've built relationships with 2–3 primary suppliers plus a handful of local or specialty producers. This costs more per unit (no bulk discount advantage), but it reduces risk. One supplier can't hold your menu hostage.
Real example: A 120-seat restaurant in Fitzroy built a relationship with a local produce co-op (alongside their PFD account) and a specialty importer for proteins. When PFD had a beef shortage in Q2 2025, they pivoted the menu in 48 hours instead of cancelling service.
What this means for you:
- Invoice errors from suppliers are now your second-biggest operational drain after staffing. Venues using manual invoice checking spend 4–6 hours weekly on discrepancies. Automated invoice reconciliation (flagging unit-price anomalies, weight variance, duplicate charges) is no longer nice-to-have—it's essential. Most owners aren't doing this yet, which is a gap.
- Negotiate payment terms aggressively. Pre-COVID, 30-day terms were standard. Now, venues with cash-flow discipline are negotiating 45–60 day terms with Bidvest and Countrywide, freeing up working capital. If you're paying upfront, you're leaving money on the table.
- Local suppliers often don't have ordering systems. A counter-intuitive tactic: venues that built simple Google Sheets templates (or used their POS system's notes function) for direct-producer orders cut ordering time by 30% and built stronger relationships. The producer sees you're organised; you get priority allocation when stock is tight.
Customer expectations hardened around digital-first service
Online ordering, contactless payment, and delivery became permanent. But the venues thriving aren't the ones who just bolted these onto their old model.
The shift: customers now expect integrated digital experience. A café customer orders via QR code, pays via Tap, and wants the order ready in 4 minutes. A restaurant customer books via Resy or Dimmi, expects a text reminder, and wants to pre-order wine. These aren't optional anymore—they're baseline.
What changed permanently:
- Walk-ins dropped 15–25% at most venues (especially cafés and casual restaurants). Booking and pre-ordering became the norm. Venues that didn't build these systems by mid-2024 are now scrambling to catch up.
- Review management became a real operational task. Google, TripAdvisor, and Yelp reviews now influence 70% of new customer decisions. A single bad review can cost 5–10 customers. Venues that respond to reviews within 24 hours (especially negative ones) see 40% better conversion of browsers to repeat customers. Most owners still aren't doing this—they're leaving reputation on the table.
- Delivery economics shifted. Third-party platforms (Uber Eats, DoorDash) still take 30%, but venues can't ignore them. The venues winning are using delivery as a loss-leader to drive app downloads and repeat orders, not as a profit centre.
The counter-intuitive tactic: demand prediction is now a competitive advantage
Here's what most owners aren't doing: using historical sales data to predict demand 2–4 weeks out.
Venues that started tracking their sales by day-of-week, weather, and local events (Melbourne Cup, ANZAC Day, school holidays) in 2024 now have a playbook. A café owner in Brunswick noticed they sell 40% more pastries on rainy mornings and 60% more iced drinks on days over 28°C. By pre-ordering based on the forecast, they cut waste by 18% and stock-outs by 12%.
This isn't rocket science—it's spreadsheet work. But it compounds. Over a year, a 15% reduction in food waste is $8,000–$12,000 in margin recovery for a mid-size venue.
How to start:
- Export your last 12 months of sales by day-of-week and by item.
- Note spikes around public holidays, school holidays, and local events.
- Build a simple forecast model (even a spreadsheet works) that flags expected demand 3 weeks out.
- Adjust your supplier orders accordingly.
Venues doing this are ordering 20–30% more accurately, which means less waste and fewer angry customers when you run out of the special.
What didn't stick (and why that matters)
Some pandemic habits died fast:
- Outdoor seating as a primary revenue driver. Venues that invested heavily in outdoor fit-outs in 2021 realised by 2023 that weather and foot traffic didn't justify the capex. The venues that kept outdoor seating did so because it was already part of their design, not as a pandemic pivot.
- Delivery-only ghost kitchens. A handful of venues tried this. Most failed by 2023. The winners went back to hybrid models: a physical location (for brand and loyalty) plus delivery.
- Contactless everything. Customers want options, not mandates. Venues that forced contactless-only payment saw customer friction. Those that offered both card and cash (or card and QR) did better.
Where Calso fits in
The operational gaps we've highlighted—invoice reconciliation, demand prediction, review response management, and supplier ordering—are the ones eating your time and margin. Calso automates these: it catches supplier invoice errors, predicts demand based on historical patterns and local events, drafts review responses, and manages ordering workflows. The venues using Calso are reclaiming 8–12 hours weekly that used to go to admin, freeing up bandwidth to focus on the floor and your team.
Want early access?
If you're running a venue in Australia and want to automate the operational chaos we've outlined, join the Calso waitlist at calso.com.au/join. Founding venues get direct access to our team and priority support. Spots are limited by city—and they're filling fast.
Key takeaways
- Staffing: Permanent rosters cost more upfront but save on turnover. Plan public holiday staffing 8–10 weeks ahead.
- Suppliers: Diversify. One supplier is a liability. Build 2–3 primary relationships plus local backups.
- Digital: Online ordering, reviews, and pre-booking are now table stakes—not differentiators.
- Demand prediction: Use your sales history to forecast 3–4 weeks out. Cut waste. Reduce stock-outs. Improve margins.
- Automation: The venues thriving in 2026 aren't doing more work—they're doing smarter work. Automate invoicing, ordering, and admin so you can focus on hospitality.